9/30/10

Records (updated thru 9/19/10):
SMISE (Black): 2-4
SMISE (Red): 4-3-1
STEAM: 9-2
SQUARE:  3-2
PERFECT: 4-4
STATFOX: 4-6
WILDCARD: 4-3
OVERALL RECORD : 30--24-1 = $342

Only on play tonight and its a PP for a road team.  Give us the Aggies +3 over OK state.  

9/20/10

Records (updated thru 9/19/10):
SMISE (Black): 2-4
SMISE (Red): 3-3-1
STEAM: 9-2
SQUARE:  3-2
PERFECT: 4-4
STATFOX: 4-6
WILDCARD: 3-3
OVERALL RECORD : 28--24-1 = $138
All times listed are CST.  $100 a play.
SMISE (Black):
SMISE (Red): 7:30 SF +5
STEAM:
SQUARE: 
PERFECT:
STATFOX: 6:05 KC +105 - Play Against - Any team (DETROIT) off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts
WILDCARD:

9/19/10

Records (updated thru 9/18/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-4
SMISE (Red): 3-3
STEAM: 9-1
SQUARE:  3-1
PERFECT: 4-3
STATFOX: 3-6
WILDCARD: 3-2
OVERALL RECORD : 26--20 = $378 (Based $100 unit player)
All times listed are CST. 
SMISE (Black): 12:00 Mia +6 WIN
SMISE (Red): 3:15 Was +3 PUSH
STEAM:12:00 Phi -3.5 LOSS
SQUARE:  12:00 Arz +7 LOSS
PERFECT: 12:00 Cle -2.5 LOSS
STATFOX: 12:00 Buff/GB Under 43 WIN Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points good offense from last season - averaged 5.4 or more yards/play, in non-conference games29-8 over the last 10 seasons.  ( 78.4% | 20.2 units ).
WILDCARD: 7:20 NYG +5 LOSS

---

9/18/10

We have 3 PERFECT PLAYS today which is beyond rare.  Our perfect plays are hitting at 75%!

Records (updated thru 9/17/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-3
SMISE (Red): 3-3
STEAM: 8-1
SQUARE:  3-1
PERFECT: 3-1
STATFOX: 3-5
WILDCARD: 3-2
OVERALL RECORD : 24--16 = $618 (Based $100 unit player)
All times listed are CST. 
SMISE (Black): 7:00 T. Tech +4 LOSS,
SMISE (Red): NO PLAY
STEAM: 9:30 Arz -2 WIN
SQUARE: NO PLAY
PERFECT: 2:30 WAS +3.5 LOSS, 11:00 Iowa St. +4 LOSS & 2:30 Minn +13 WIN
STATFOX: 6:00 Auburn -7 LOSS Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (AUBURN) average passing team (175-230 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game), after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game
WILDCARD:  NO PLAY

9/17/10

Records (updated thru 9/15/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-3
SMISE (Red): 3-3
STEAM: 8-1
SQUARE:  2-1
PERFECT: 3-1
STATFOX: 2-5
WILDCARD: 2-2
OVERALL RECORD : 21--16 = $311 (Based $100 unit player)
All times listed are CST.
SMISE (Black):
SMISE (Red):
STEAM: 
SQUARE: 9:00 Nev +3 WIN
PERFECT:
STATFOX:  9:10 Sea -105 WIN
WILDCARD: 7:00 S. Miss -5.5 WIN

9/16/10

Records (updated thru 9/15/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-3
SMISE (Red): 3-3
STEAM: 7-1
SQUARE:  2-1
PERFECT: 3-1
STATFOX: 2-4
WILDCARD: 2-2
OVERALL RECORD : 20--15 = $311 (Based $100 unit player)
All times listed are CST.
SMISE (Black):
SMISE (Red):
STEAM:  6:45 NC St -1 (550 on the steam) WIN
SQUARE:
PERFECT:
STATFOX: 7:15 SD +110 LOSS Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (SAN DIEGO) with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season (NL), in September games 57-37 over the last 5 seasons.  ( 60.6% | 32.3 units ) 10-10 this year.  ( 50.0% | 2.1 units )
WILDCARD:

9/15/10

Records (updated thru 9/14/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-3
SMISE (Red): 3-3
STEAM: 7-1
SQUARE:  2-1
PERFECT: 3-1
STATFOX: 2-4
WILDCARD: 2-2
OVERALL RECORD : 20--15 = $311 (Based $100 unit player)
All times listed are CST.
SMISE (Black): NO PLAYS TODAY
SMISE (Red):
STEAM:
SQUARE:
PERFECT:
STATFOX:
WILDCARD:

9/14/10

Records (updated thru 9/13/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-3
SMISE (Red): 3-3
STEAM: 7-1
SQUARE:  2-1
PERFECT: 3-1
STATFOX: 1-4
WILDCARD: 1-2
OVERALL RECORD : 18--15 - 2-0 in NFL on Monday! 
Units won/Loss = +$96 (Based $100 unit player)

All times listed are CST.

SMISE (Black): No Play
SMISE (Red): No Play
STEAM: No Play
SQUARE:  No Play
PERFECT: No Play
STATFOX: 7:05 Hou -120 WIN
WILDCARD: 7:05 Tex -1.5 +115 WIN

9/13/10

Records (updated thru 9/12/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-3
SMISE (Red): 3-3
STEAM: 6-1
SQUARE:  2-1
PERFECT: 2-1
STATFOX: 1-3
WILDCARD: 1-2
OVERALL RECORD : 16--14
Units won/Loss = +$46 (Based $100 unit player)
Tough day yesterday as we went 3-3.  Damn Cowboys cost us a winning day.  Oh well on to today!


SMISE (Black): No Play
SMISE (Red): No Play
STEAM: 6:00 Bal +1 - WIN
SQUARE:  No Play
PERFECT: 9:15 KC +4 - WIN
STATFOX: 7:40 Col Rockies -150 - LOSS
WILDCARD: No Play

9/12/10

Records (updated thru 9/11/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-2
SMISE (Red): 2-3
STEAM: 5-1
SQUARE:  1-1
PERFECT: 2-0
STATFOX: 1-2
WILDCARD: 1-2
OVERALL RECORD : 13--11 
Units won/Loss = +$76

9-12-10 All times listed CST, Units are $100 bets unless otherwise noted.
SMISE (Black) - 12:00 Oak +7 LOSS - Tennessee is 25-38 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 pts under Fisher.
SMISE (Red) - 12:00 Pitt +1 WIN - Too easy to take Atlanta, that's why our RED Smise is telling us to take Pitt
STEAM - 12:00 Hou -1 WIN - The steam on this game is 603!, We are 7-2 in games with steam this high
SQUARE - 3:15 Arz -3 WIN - Buy the 1/2 pt, but you won't need it. This line was at 4.5 at one point. Great value. Go Derek Anderson!
PERFECT -12:00 Car +7 LOSS - buy the 1/2 pt, we are 2-0 YTD on PP
STATFOX - 7:15 Dall -3 LOSS - Play on teams vs teams that ended last year with 4 or 5 losses in
last 5 games (Was) during the 1st month.  Just because the Boyz had a perceived "bad" pre-season that has nothing to do with the blow-out in store for Washington.
WILDCARD - No Play

9/11/10

Records (updated thru 9/10/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-1
SMISE (Red): 2-2
STEAM: 4-1
SQUARE:  1-0
PERFECT: 1-0
STATFOX: 1-1
WILDCARD: 1-1
All times listed CST

9-11-10
SMISE (Black) - 9:30 UCLA +8 LOSS
SMISE (Red) - 2:30 Iowa St. +13.5 LOSS
STEAM - 3:00 AF -1 WIN
SQUARE - 6:00 Penn St. +12 LOSS
PERFECT - 11:00 S. Carolina -3 WIN
STATFOX - 6:00 Washington/Syracuse U49.5 LOSS
WILDCARD - 6:00 Tenn +12 LOSS

9/10/10

9-10-10
SMISE (Black) -N/A
SMISE (Red) -N/A
STEAM - N/A
SQUARE -  6:00 Marshall +13 WIN
PERFECT -N/A
STATFOX - N/A
WILDCARD - N/A

Daily Picks Archive

Please note that all plays are scored based on the lines posted below. Some lines are bought down to the original line or below prime numbers so we don't get beat by the hook. There are not plays for all systems everyday. The information is listed as follows: 1. System, 2. team, 3. line, and 4.strength of play in ( )
All times posted are CST.

Records (updated thru 9/11/10):
SMISE (Black): 1-2
SMISE (Red): 2-3
STEAM: 5-1
SQUARE:  1-1
PERFECT: 2-0
STATFOX: 1-2
WILDCARD: 1-2
OVERALL RECORD : 13--11 
Units won/Loss = $76

9-6-10
SMISE (Black) -
SMISE (Red) - VT -2 (6.1) LOSS
STEAM - Maryland +7 (755.2) WIN
PERFECT - N/A
STATFOX - Hou -118 LOSS
WILDCARD - SD -150 WIN

9-5-10
SMISE (Black) - Tulsa -7 (1.1) LOSS
SMISE (Red) -SMU +14 (6.1) WIN
STEAM - TB -1.5 +110 LOSS
PERFECT - N/A
STATFOX - Hou +104 (20.6) WIN
WILDCARD - Tex -123 LOSS

9-4-10
SMISE (Black) -NC +7 (136) WIN
SMISE (Red) - UNLV +14 (80.6) LOSS
STEAM -Fresno St. +6 (1114.4) outright WINNER
PERFECT - ND -10 (26, 5.4, 73) 
WIN
STATFOX -
WILDCARD -

9-3-10
SMISE (Black) -
SMISE (Red) - 
STEAM - Arz -16 (217) WIN
PERFECT -
STATFOX -
WILDCARD -

9-2-10
SMISE (Black) -
SMISE (Red) - Hawaii +18 (47.2) WIN
STEAM - Utah - 1 (300) WIN
PERFECT -
STATFOX -
WILDCARD -

Home teams in college football

Below are college football results for "betting against the public" over the past several years. We broke the results down for home teams and visiting teams.

- For example, if a Home team has less than 23% of the public betting on them (Visitor has more than 77% of the public), this scenario resulted in a 55.3% winning percentage.

- On the other hand, Visitors with less than 23% of the bets (more than 77% of bets on Home team), resulted in a 50.8% winning percentage.

Some members may try using Home teams at the 23% level and Visiting teams at the 23% level, focusing on Home teams in college football.

Number of Bets and Big Games

Number of Bets and Big Games
Over the years, College Football Square Playshave done reasonably well compared to the "Bet Against" results shown above. Our industry contacts and analytical tools allowed us to focus on "bigger games" with national focus -- leading to more contrarian value. One indicator that our SportsInsights researchers use as a proxy for "bigger games" is the Number of Bets that we compile for every game. If the game is one of the more heavily-bet games of the day, you know that the Public is betting that game big.

SMISE

The SMISE system is composed of a variety of information from various information locations from across the web.  References includes herein include Sportsinsights.com, pregame.com, SBRodds.com and ATStalk.com.
The name SMISE came from a combination of Smart Money and Wiseguy plays.  

Smart Money - When the line moves in the opposite direction of the public betting trends, a Smart Money pick is triggered. This is a sure sign that a pro betting syndicate has placed a large wager on that team. We’ve calculated the optimal formula for triggering Smart Money picks.
SMART MONEY/WISEGUY System
1) Lowest spread % on pregame
2) Largest overall move between 1st opening lines between CRIS, Greek, 5dimes - usually in Pro its GREEK, College its 5D
3) Play largest overall move with lowest %     
4) ML% > than the spread%
5) Line never drops below original

Sharp System - When the line moves suddenly up or down in less than 5 minutes time it suggests a sharp bet has been made.
SHARP System Details1) Use 5Dime %'s and moves for showing at the time of the move (http://www.sbrodds.com/)
2) Play the game with the largest single move with lowest %

Steam Moves- Sudden uniform line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace. This is a sure sign that a pro betting syndicate has bet that team. We show you which Steam Moves to follow and which to avoid.
STEAM System Details
1) take the line that opens 1st between CRIS, Greek, 5 dimes (http://www.sbrodds.com/) - usually in Pro its GREEK, College its 5D
2) use pregame %'s
3) play largest overall move with regardless of %
4) each pt move = 10 + 50% - %=

Square - Bet against the public on the the day's most lopsided bet games.  We’ve calculated the optimal formal for betting against the public.
SQUARE System Details1) Pick lowest spread % on pregame
2) Minimum line move not > than .5 in wrong direction using GREEK

Statfox - Go to Statfox.com, statfox newsletter from ATStalk or Playbook (Marc Lawrence) to review the most up to date trends. 
STATFOX System Details
1) Play the most probable % based on the difference between the L% years with this year % listed on Statfox excluding all erronous stats (I.e. Days fo the week, odd %, Moneylines).
Note: During football season these can come from the Statfox power sheet newsletter or Marc Lawrence's Playbook. 

DJ SPORTZ System

DJSPORTZ picks games for all sports against the spread and ML.  Our winners are based on the following elements: 

1) Line movement
   a) initial move
   b) sharp moves
   c) overall move

2) Percentages (both spread % and ML %)

3) Prime numbers